Wednesday, September 20, 2006

cry wolf


Proclaimation.The push for war is on. This time the guest of honor is Iran.
It is very similar to the pre fight press agentry before "operation iraqi freedom". Substitute "nuclear program" for "WMD" and it begins to sound alike.
I see two issues with basing "OFI" on WMDs. First, we never did find the massive warehouses full of chemical and biological weapons. Yes, we know Iraq used chemicals against the Kurds, and yes, we know the United Nations and the Clinton Administration believed there were WMDs in Iraq. The invading army just didn't find them.
Second, the "incursion" was not really about WMDs. WMDs were the excuse, not the reason.In an interview with Vanity Fair, Paul Wolfowitz said that WMDs was one issue they could all agree on at the White House, and so that was used as the centerpiece of the run up to war.


HistoryLesson.Now, after Pearl Harbor, there was no internal debate at the White House about what would be the best reason to give the public for a war. It was obvious that we were at war with Japan, and, soon enough, Germany. When you have to discuss what is the best strategy to use for selling the war, something is wrong.
So, now the line is "we must stop Iran from getting the bomb". "They will test their new bomb in the suburbs of Tel Aviv".
And Israel will retaliate, and Iran will become a radioactive ruin. And the fallout from that attack will land on American soldiers in neighboring Iraq.
But I get ahead of myself. While we should not be complacent over Iran getting the bomb, I don't think that air power alone will wipe out all of the nuclear sites in Iran.
Nor will this prevent Iran from buying a bomb on the black market from Russia or Pakistan.
The economic ruin that would follow an air raid on Iran would be considerable. The Chinese have considerable investments in Iran, and are largely dependent on Iranian oil. What if China decided to pull some of it's capital out of the American economy?
But, lets get back to the reasoning behind this proposed war...stopping Iran from getting the bomb. Is this the real reason for the push to war, or just the excuse?
When you cry wolf, you are not believed the second time. Which is the thrust of my commentary...what is the real reason for the proposed invasion of Iran?
Is it pressure from Israel and/or Saudi Arabia?
Do we covet the oil in Iran?
Has our government become addicted to killing? It is like the last days of Nazi Germany, when production was speeded up on the final solution to the Jewish problem, knowing that the Soviet and American Armies were fast approaching. W has only two more years until he retires.

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